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Province Shows Model Projections for COVID-19 as it announces 43 New Infections in the Province

During yesterday’s update on the covid 19 situation in Nova Scotia, chief medical health officer Dr. Robert Strang shared the government’s models for what the number of cases could look like

Premier Stephen McNeil (left) and the province’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Robert Strang discuss modelling projections of the COVID-19 virus. (Government of Nova Scotia photo)

in the future and what it might look like without the current preventative health measures.

One model shows the government is projecting 1,453 cases by June 30 if residents practice good compliance with health regulations. With poor compliance, the model predicts 6,269 cases. With good compliance, the number of hospitalizations at the peak of the pandemic in Nova Scotia is projected at around 35. With poor compliance, it could be as high as 85.

Strang said the province greatly increased its testing capacity, with an average of over 1,000 tests per day completed over the last four days. The more tests the province can complete, the easier it will be to identify and isolate cases. He said they want to have a low threshold for testing to be able to identify as many people with COVID-19 as possible.

Another model Strang shared suggest there could have been as many as 943 cases of COVID-19 by today, where as the current total stands at 517.  What people are doing, is making a difference, says Strang.  Graphs of the modelling can be found by following this link:  https://bit.ly/3a9Gpp9


In wrapping up the provincial covid 19 update, Premier Stephen McNeil said thanked Nova Scoitans for their efforts so far but there is still work to be done.

Looking at the province and seeing clusters of cases in some communities and nursing homes, there is reason to be concerned. This is why, McNeil said, the province is going into those places and setting up sites that can handle large numbers of tests.

McNeil said the modeling shows the stark differences between good and bad compliance with provincial health regulations.

The province has announced 43 new cases of COVID-19 in Nova Scotia. This bring the total number of confirmed cases to 517.